A nova curva de previsão do ciclo 24

Pre-empting on the solar curve fit

Posted on August 27, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Guest post by David Archibald

We return to Dr Svalgaard’s plot of four solar parameters, updated daily at: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png

There are a couple of things to note. Firstly, the solar Mean Field, which is the top line, went into the Solar Cycle 23/24 transition being neat and regular like a heartbeat, and has come out choppy and arrhythmic. Secondly, the F10.7 ramp up continues to be very flat indeed. The line of best fit of the F10.7 flux, currently at 82, equates to a sunspot number of 24. In terms of sunspot number, the rate of ramp up over the last year is 11 per annum. At two years into the cycle, this will be the maximum rate of increase we will get.

One of the accepted solar cycle prediction methodologies is a curve fitting exercise two years after the month of solar minimum, which was December 2008. Inspired by the fact that NOAA et al called 2010 the hottest year ever when it was only half over, we have decided to go early and curve fit now. The green corona brightness tells us that solar maximum will be in 2015. Combined with that constraint, the graphic below is the result:

F10.7 flux at solar maximum will be 105, equating to a sunspot number of 50. It will be the weakest solar cycle since Solar Cycle 6, the second half of the Dalton Minimum (1810 to 1823). Solar Cycle 5 had a maximum amplitude of 49.2 and Solar Cycle 6 of 48.7.

The evidence for a Dalton Minimum repeat continues to build. As a 210 year de Vries cycle event, it has come along right on schedule.

Solar Flux maximo a 105 com um SN de 50. Ciclo solar que chega ao maximo em 2015. O ciclo 24 é como o ciclo 5, o mais profundo do minimo de Dalton.

Acho que a previsão do maximo em 2015 é pouco provavel porqué imagina um ciclo total com uma durata de +/- 15-16 anos. Acho que o ciclo 24 é o primeiro de 3 ciclos minimos muito parecido com o minimo de Maunder, mas fazer comparações entre minimos é errado porqué o Sol é sempre diferente e não segue os cientistas da NASA que lembro achavam o ciclo 24 explosivo e o mais forte de sempre…. e é o mais fraco como nunca visto em tempos modernos.

SAND-RIO